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Friday, October 18, 2013

Shale Gas Production on Downhill Slope..

Shale Gas revolution started in Barnett Shale... 2005 was the first year when Horizontal drilling wells formed majority of wells being drilled in Barnett Shale..

There are indicators of production.. 
1. No of Active wells
2. No of new well permits
3. Actual Production figures

No of Active wells in Barnett Shale:

No of new well permits:

Actual Production Figures

The drop in drilling permits is an early indicator of the subsequent drop in production rates of Shale Gas..
So looks like the wells are at the max productive for 6yrs or so.. 

As per the article I am referencing.. "David Hughes has made a detailed study of the Barnett Shale and the report includes activities up until May 2012. For individual wells the production in newly drilled wells falls by 61% in the first year and this fact and the fact that production continues to decline thereafter means that every year 1507 new wells must be drilled to maintain a constant level of total production. The fact that they drilled 840 new wells in 2012 should mean therefore that production will decline in 2013."

So Shale Gas is a short term boost and its coming to an end.. maybe another couple of years or so we will start seeing drop in Shale Gas production in US.. (my personal opinion)

David Hughes - PCI - Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Cornell 5-2-12

Conclusion: What ever people say.. its important to be ready for an "energy deficient future" plan your investments and your lifestyle accordingly.. Its important to be aligned to agro based investments (GAEL, Jayant Agro).. energy efficient investments (NHPC, Tata Comm). 
Save energy should be the underlying theme.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Jayant Agro: Quarter Ending Sept 2013: Estimated Sales/Profit Numbers

This is the first time I have complete FOB (Freight on Board) export data for 3 months for Jayant as well as Ihsedu Agro Chem..  
I have hidden some data like actual shipping data (Source/destination Port, date etc..) to prevent misuse of data.. 
The FOB and DBK+STR (DBK: Duty Draw back, STR: Sales Tax Refund) numbers are actual figures..

Ihsedu Agro Chem, Export (FOB: Freight on Board) data

July 2013: 116.00Cr 
August 2013: 73.01Cr
Sept 2013: 102.14Cr

Ihsedu Agro Chem Total FOB Export Value for Quarter July-Aug-Sept 2013: 291.15Cr
DBK+STR = 5.31Cr

Jayant Agro Organics, Export (FOB Freight on Board) data:
July 2013:   21.81Cr + 21.49Cr  = 43.30Cr
August 2013: 20.86Cr+ 18.51Cr = 39.37Cr
Sept 2013:  16.64Cr + 19.27Cr  = 35.92Cr

Total FOB Export data for Jayant Agro Organics is: 118.60Cr
Consolidated Sales: 118.60+291.15 = 409.75Cr
As per Annual Report 2013
FOB Export data: 1288.44Cr
Total Revenues from Operations: 1621.00
Domestic sales: 332.56Cr = 27.71Cr/Month
Assumed similar domestic sales numbers for July-Aug-Sept 2013= 27.71 x 3 = 83.14Cr
Projected Q2 Quarter ending Sept 2013 Data:

Expected Consolidated Sales data for Quarter ending Sept 2013: 409.75+83.14 = 492.89Cr

PBDIT for Quarter Ending Sept 2013: 30.00Cr 
(6.00% PBDIT Margin- Annual Report March 2013)

Net Profit for Quarter Ending Sept 2013: 10.99Cr  
(2.23% Net Profit Margin- Annual Report March 2013)
Estimated/Projected Consolidated Quarterly Numbers for Jayant Agro Organics:
Sales: 492.89Cr
PBDIT: 30.00Cr
Net Profit: 10.99Cr

So there we have it.. according to my calculations at a consolidated level Jayant should report for Quarter ending Sept 2013: 492.89Cr of Sales and 10.99Cr of Net Profit.

In addition to the projected sales and net profit figures for Jayant Agro.. Jayant agro has also reported a sale of 24.9% stake sale in Ihsedu agro Chem to Arkema for 30Cr.. Ihsedu Agro Chem has also reported a special dividend distribution to Jayant Agro worth 15Cr  (Link)

Dividend distribution is taxed at Ihsedu Agro Chem level and when Jayant distributes it again it is not taxed again .. so it makes sense for Jayant to distribute it to its shareholders.. As per my understanding we could see the 15Cr dividend passed on to shareholders of Jayant agro.. 

Jayant Agro has an equity base of 7.5Cr so 15Cr translates to a Dividend of Rs 10 per share (Face value :Rs5)..

So this Quarterly results announcement on Oct 29 2013.. could also include a "One Time/Exceptional" dividend payout of Rs10/= per share to shareholders of Jayant Agro Organics..

Please Note: This is information based on publicly available information.. and my personal assumptions Please do your own deep dive before investing. This information does not recommend you to buy or sell.. please talk to your investment advisor with regards to investment in stocks..

(Sept 2013 Ihsedu AgroChem FOB Data)
(Sept 2013 Ihsedu AgroChem )
(Aug 2013 Ihsedu Agro Chem)
(Aug 2013 Ihsedu Agro Chem)
(July 2013 Ihsedu Agro Chem)

(July 2013 Ihsedu Agro Chem)

(Sept-2013 Jayant Agro FOB Data)
Sept 2013 - Jayant Agro FOB Data

(Aug 2013 - Jayant Agro FOB Data)
(Aug 2013 - Jayant Agro FOB Data)
(July 2013 - Jayant Agro FOB Data)

(July 2013 - Jayant Agro FOB Data)

Wednesday, October 02, 2013

Book Review: Arjuna Saga of a Pandava Warrior Prince -By:- Anuja Chandramouli

Arjuna the warrior prince needs no introduction.. the plot is well known and every Indian has heard and read stories from Mahabharata.

Book: Arjuna - Saga of a Pandava Warrior Prince
Publisher: Leadstart Publishing www.leadstartcorp.com
Price: 250 INR, 10 USD

the Book : "Arjuna-Saga of Pandava Warrior Prince" is the story of Mahabharata retold. There are number of details which make the book an interesting read, some excerpts from the book..

The first time the Mahabharat was told by Ved Vyasa when great grandson of Arjuna - Janamejaya performed the Sarpasatra yagna to avenge his father's (Parikshit) death.

Dronacharya acquired all the great weapons of great warrior Parashurama as a gift from Parashurama.

Drona gave precise orders to servants: "make sure that Arjuna never eats in the dark. A lamp must always remain lighted for him when he takes the evening meal"  .....Then in a moment of insight Arjuna realized that with similar practice his skill as an archer can be improved a 100 fold and he would not have to rely on his eyes to find his mark.

Kunti said to Surya  'O Lord let our son be born with the celestial armour and ear rings unique to his father so that I will always be able to recognize him as mine'

Sage Narada said to the Pandavas....'Wise men always learn from the lessons history has to offer. It would be prudent to have some ground rules where Draupadi is concerned so that you can avoid quarreling with each other over her'

On being rejected Apsara Urvashi cursed Arjuna to be a Eunuch

Arjuna is given the Bow Gandeeva by Varuna the God of Wind.

Duryodhana's wife Bhanumati suggested we play a game of dice (to Karna) to while away the time.. I had gained an upper hand and became excited by the thrill of it. Suddenly Bhanumati interrupted our game.. I tugged at her waistband to detain her and the delicate garment, embroidered with pearls, ripped, scattering precious gems all over the floor, just as Duryodhana stepped in..Struggling to find words to express... and to somehow apologise for my indelicacy.. Duryodhana pre-empted me and said that those he loved would never do anything to breach the trust ..

Duryodhana remembered that the preceptor of the Asuras, Shukracharya, possessed knowledge of the secret craft of Sanjivani which could bring  the dead back to life.. Duryodhana decided that if he could somehow acquire knowledge of that esoteric craft, he would be able to revive everyone he had loved and lost...

- Arjuna's Story
- Early Days
- Mentor Extraordinaire
- The Honour Student
- The Tournament
- Sworn Rival
- Arjuna Wins A Bride
- Serpent Princess
- The Abduction That Saved The Lineage
- Feeding Agni
- Arjuna's Quest For Celestial Weapons
- Brihannala, The Eunuch
- Arjuna's Charioteer
- Death Of A Hero
- Arjuna Avenges His Son's Martyrdom
- The Possessed & The Pledged
- Kurukshetra
- Duel Unto Death
- Midnight Massacre
- Restitution
- The Final Journey

The great war of Kurukshetra is well documented in this book with the tide turning in favour of one party to the other as the war progressed . The storyteller gives a clear indication that as in life.. things are not always in Black and White but shades of grey.. Pandavas and the Kauravas both are driven into action by feelings of fear, greed and anger..

Indian mythlogical tales impart values of Indian culture, convey subtle facts, rules and maxims to guide our daily lives..  Arjuna compel's the reader to understand that life is a complex bundle of action and its consequences.. and importance of clarity of thought and action, to lead a purposeful life